[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 23N38W TO 09N34W AND IS
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A
MOISTURE REDUCTION WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SAHARAN AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENGULFING IT.
THEREFORE...NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 20N53W TO 08N52W AND IS
MOVING WEST NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDE WITH THE AREA WHERE
MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGHER FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W AND IS MOVING NEAR 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16N102W.
REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N23W TO 07N36W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 10N50W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N
BETWEEN 17W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-40W AS WELL AS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL...AN ELONGATED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 90W N OF 21N WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS
GENERATING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH EXTEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF S
OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-88W. THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED
NEAR 16N102W. REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF
93W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W TO 14N93W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL...AN ELONGATED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 90W N OF 21N WHILE AN ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS
GENERATING UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 82W AS WELL AS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 11N ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH MOVES ACROSS PANAMA TO A 1008 MB LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
BASIN FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N53W.
THIS IS GENERATING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. THE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WILL START MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY
EARLY THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.

HISPANIOLA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN BASIN FROM A HIGH CENTERED
IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N53W. THIS IS GENERATING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE BY
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO
DEGENERATE WED MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO
RICO PUSHING FORWARD AN ENVELOPE OF HIGH MOISTURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 20N WHICH ALONG WITH DRY
STABLE AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST LATE TONIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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