[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W FROM
21N TO 10N MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N63W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 19N19W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 15N23W TO 8N23W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
16W-18W... AND S OF THE LOW FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N41W TO 16N40W TO
10N38W MOVING W AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N56W TO 10N53W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT
18N16W TO 10N20W TO 7N30W TO 7N37W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N37W
TO 7N40W TO 11N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM
23N93W TO 16N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. FURTHER N...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES E OF E TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-96W.  THE E GULF HAS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ALONG 25N. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR
25N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE E
GULF E OF 92W...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 63W FROM
21N TO 10N MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. OUT SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A LAX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 10-15
KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE  CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BASICALLY W
OF 80W...OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 61W-77W. MOREOVER
...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WNW WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA W OF 70W MOSTLY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWEWRS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 71W. 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N53W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
37N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 26N60W...AND 25N44W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE
DOMINATE SOURCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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