[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N34W 16N33W 10N33W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 14N51W 10N50W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N
TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 14N59W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PART OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W. A SECOND
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N98W IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO ITS
PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N88W...TO THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 25N96W 20N92W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
13N24W 10N35W 9N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17W... AND FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST
OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W.
A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 27N98W IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER
HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO
ITS PRESENT POSITION SINCE 01/2315 UTC. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N88W...TO THE 23N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 25N96W 20N92W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N84W...
BEYOND THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 24N98W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS AND HAZE ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
THE ICAO STATION KEMK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND BAY CITY...
AND IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT
THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN LAKE CHARLES AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN COASTAL ALABAMA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY PRECIPITATION COVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS IN
PUNTA GORDA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN NAPLES AND MARATHON KEY.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
28N63W 23N68W...CURVING TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...TO 14N74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
27N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W 30N60W 28N62W 27N64W 24N67W...FROM PUERTO RICO TO
23N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN WARMING AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING...IN AN AREA OF EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING FROM LAND TO 18N TO THE WEST OF
85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...TO 12N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 11N76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO
16N82W OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA.
THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH THAT
ENCOMPASSES THE ISLAND WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR MORE...GIVING WAY TO AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
19N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO
30N36W TO 28N40W...TO A 24N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
NEAR 29N68W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 55W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 37N31W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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