[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N34W 10N32W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N54W 14N53W 10N51W
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 49W-52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 60W FROM
20N TO 9N MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N60W. THE SYSTEM IS WELL DIPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 58W-62W.

A SW GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W TO 10N28W TO 7N35W TO 10N45W TO 7N53W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 7N53W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 14W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 21W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SW GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING W AT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. FURTHER NE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N
FLORIDA FROM 31N83W TO 30N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 27N. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
MEXICO NEAR 26N100W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA...THE E GULF E OF 88W...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 60W FROM
20N TO 9N MOVING WNW AT 10 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 58W-62W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BASICALLY W OF 80W...OVER CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 65W-73W. MOREOVER...A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 9N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA W OF 70W MOSTLY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 73W. A WEAL 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N68W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N49W. A THIRD 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N58W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE DOMINATE SOURCE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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