[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 19N59W TO THE LOW
NEAR 14N59W TO 11N59W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS OBSERVED COUPLED TO
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
CONTINUE WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-
66W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW IS WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N31W TO THE LOW NEAR
14N31W TO 10N31W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT MOSTLY A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHERE A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 28W-32W.
THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THE WAVE IS BEING
ENGULFED BY DRY AIR WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N49W TO 11N50W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 46W-
55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 23N89W IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO 12N93W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH IS MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-25N E OF 93W. S
OF 22N...A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ARE HINDERING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N31W TO 09N38W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N38W AND CONTINUES TO 13N48W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N E OF
20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 22W-
39W AS WELL AS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A TONGUE OF DRY STABLE AIR OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN W OF 93W AND OVER THE NE GULF WHICH IS
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM
23N89W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 12N93W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE SE GULF FROM 22N-
25N E OF 93W. S OF 22N...A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ARE
HINDERING CONVECTION. THE N EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH EARLY THU. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF ON TUE AND
THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF ON WED. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE TEXAS COAST THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 13N W OF
79W. IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N E OF 77W. A TROPICAL WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 19N59W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N59W
TO 11N59W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
IS OBSERVED COUPLED TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS CONTINUE WEST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-66W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...AS A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI IS GENERATING
CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER LOWER LEVELS DRY
AIR HAS SET IN HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE ISLAND TUE THROUGH EARLY THU.
THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN
64W-78W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 71W. A 1017 MB
HIGH IS NEAR 29N69W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-64W
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE REGION AS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 30N60W TO 27N62W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES
ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net