[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
17N21W TO 7N23W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 6N56W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N64W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ILL-
DEFINED AT ALL LEVELS. POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO E OF THE TROPICAL NEAR 11N21W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
10N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 10N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-20W...
WITHIN 150 NM OF N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-40W...FROM 4N-13N
BETWEEN 40W-48W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 57W-60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
6N21W TO 7N30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 19/0300 UTC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY AND CONTINUES
TO 28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N93W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS TO A 1011 MB LOW JUST W OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W-93W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF WATERS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE S OF 26N TO JUST INLAND OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 81W-85W
INCLUDING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRONT WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A SECOND FRONT WILL REACH TEXAS COAST SAT
MORNING AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH FIRST FRONT REACHING FROM NEAR
TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST SUN AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT N INTO N GULF COAST LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. A THIRD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO N GULF TUE AND SHIFT SE REACHING FROM NEAR TAMPA
BAY TO TUXPAN MEXICO BY WED AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N77W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 10N82W TO OVER COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SHIFT NW AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE
SAT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT
NW AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 69W. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
25N71W TO 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N62W TO A SECOND UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-28N
BETWEEN 60W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 47W-52W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
52W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
31N57W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N41W. A LINGERING
COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR E ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N14W
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N20W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N26W. A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN
THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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