[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS
FROM 18N20W TO 6N21W MOVONG W AT 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N51W TO 5N53W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KNOTS. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 44W-57W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO 9N64W
MOVING W AT 12 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W AND ENDS AT 10N18W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N23W TO 7N43W
TO 10N50W. THE ITCZ RESUMES FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AT 10N53W TO 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 30N84W TO 27N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS AT 28N97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF HOUSTON TEXAS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO N OF THE FRONT TO
THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT TO MOVE S TO LA PESCA MEXICO WHILE THE OTHER END OF
THE FRONT DRIFTS E OVER N FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 5-15 KT
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... AND PUERTO RICO.
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 17N75W TO BEYOND
COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO N GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N67W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E
OF 70. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA
MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W. A
1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS AT 27N71W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS AT 22N74W. A 1019
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N58W. ANOTHER 1021
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N43W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N15W TO 28N20W TO 25N28W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N50W TO 20N53W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 45W-54W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH AT 23N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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