[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N23W TO
7N24W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB
PRESSURE FIELD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N20W TO 10N24W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
14N56W TO 6N57W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN
THE 700 MB PRESSURE FIELD. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO 13N65W
MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 14N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR
10N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N13W TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6.5N11W AND FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 40W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N19W TO
6N24W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N25W TO 8N40W...AND COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 19/0900 UTC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY AND CONTINUES
ALONG 27N90W TO 28N95W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO A 1011
MB LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 89W TO INLAND
OVER THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM
27N84W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF 27N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W-85W INCLUDING THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. STALLED FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A STRONGER FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR TARPON SPRINGS
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BY LATE SUN BEFORE STALLING AND
WEAKENING INTO MON. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF TUE AND
SHIFT SE REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N78W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 9N80W TO OVER COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N W OF 75W. WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
REACH THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
BY WED.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 67W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
25N72W TO 23N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W TO A SECOND
STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR 22N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 58W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N49W TO 21N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 47W-54W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 53W-66W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N60W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE E
ATLC NEAR 31N39W. A LINGERING COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR E ATLC
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N13W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N15W THEN DISSIPATES TO 25N20W. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE MERGED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN STALL AND BECOME
DIFFUSE MON. SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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