[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N39W TO 15N36W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING THAT IS
LIKELY AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO A BASE
NEAR 13N58W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N42W TO 15N33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N74W TO 20N72W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES BENEATH DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N15W TO
05N24W TO 07N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-12N BETWEEN 18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W THAT IS PROVIDING THE GULF BASIN WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION...OVER NW MEXICO...AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH OVERALL SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...A
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER ACROSS
THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 24N W OF 92W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD
AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 70W-86W THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC
REGION AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 20N BETWEEN 64W-78W. WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND OVERALL EASTERLY
TRADES CONVERGING BETWEEN 75W-85W...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-88W WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
ACTIVITY ACROSS PANAMA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
ALONG 10N/11N...IN THE VICINITY OF 12N77W...AND ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 77W-85W. FARTHER EAST...E OF 70W...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS WITHIN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THE NORTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS AREA
REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
FROM NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W-80W AND
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-75W. THIS
WILL PRESENT AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION... THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 74W IS PROVIDING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND THE GREATER CHANCE FOR STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION LATER ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 34N73W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE
NEAR 22N74W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
31N71W. BOTH EXTEND SURFACE TROUGHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEIR
CIRCULATIONS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN
68W-81W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS GENERAL FRONTAL
TROUGHING AS A FRACTURED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N71W
TO 25N65W AND FROM 27N63W TO 29N56W. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS THE
FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N52W AND
EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO 13N58W. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N57W TO 17N46W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-18N
BETWEEN 43W-56W. OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 33N16W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 26N36W THEN WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO 20N62W. THE ONLY AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOTED IS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 18W-29W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA NEAR 29N07W TO 23N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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