[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N37W TO 15N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING THAT IS
LIKELY AMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO A BASE
NEAR 14N56W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N41W TO 14N29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N73W TO 20N71W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES BENEATH DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N14W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 07N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 12W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N
BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W THAT IS PROVIDING THE GULF BASIN WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION...OVER NW MEXICO...AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH OVERALL SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...A
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A FEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE HOWEVER ACROSS
THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 25N W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD
AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 70W-86W THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM OVER THE FAR EAST PACIFIC
REGION AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 24N BETWEEN 63W-77W. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W AND OVERALL EASTERLY
TRADES CONVERGING BETWEEN 75W-85W...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-85W WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
ACTIVITY ACROSS PANAMA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
ALONG 10N/11N...IN THE VICINITY OF 15N78W...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 76W-
81W. FARTHER EAST...E OF 70W...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 12N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS WITHIN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THE NORTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. OVERALL THIS AREA
REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ALOFT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
FROM NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W-80W AND
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-80W. THIS
WILL PRESENT AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION... THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 72W IS PROVIDING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND THE GREATER CHANCE FOR STRONGER AREAS OF
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 35N73W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE
NEAR 23N75W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N76W AND A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N70W. BOTH EXTEND SURFACE TROUGHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THEIR CIRCULATIONS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N
BETWEEN 73W-81W. THE TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS GENERAL FRONTAL
TROUGHING AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N59W SW TO
28N66W TO 23N73W. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 330 NM
EITHER SIDE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 55W-62W.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHILE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO BY LATE MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N52W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW
TO 12N60W. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 10N59W TO 17N45W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 41W-58W.
OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
32N19W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO
26N34W THEN WEST TO 25N58W. THE ONLY AREA OF PRECIPITATION NOTED
IS SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 17W-29W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA NEAR 29N09W TO 23N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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