[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N38W 14N39W 8N41W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 15N75W...TO 11N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CURVES FROM 17N85W...ACROSS WESTERN
HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N59W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE AREA OF TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND IT STOPS AS IT
REACHES THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
11N17W 8N23W 6N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN
19W AND 31W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG 25N100W IN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KGBK. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

SCATTERED AND BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON TEXAS
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
ARE IN VALPARAISO FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS EXIST FROM
TALLAHASSEE TO PERRY.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N75W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N73W...TO
HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 26N66W 24N69W 21N71W. THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHOWN UP IN
THE RECENT PAST SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND
72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF AND IN EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W
AND 71W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH FROM
250 MB AND FROM 500 MB ALSO WILL REACH THE ISLAND AT 700 MB FOR
THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL/250 MB TROUGH WILL
REACH HISPANIOLA ALSO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH WILL SPREAD MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND STAY IN
PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 15N75W...TO 11N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CURVES FROM 17N85W...ACROSS WESTERN
HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N59W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE AREA OF TRINIDAD AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.29 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...AND 0.14 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 10N76W...9N79W...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR
8N81W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO
THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN LAND AND 84W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N51W 13N53W 10N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 30N50W 28N60W 31N66W. THE
TROUGH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH WHOSE BASE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
30N45W 26N50W 22N61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 21W AND 31W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 26N BETWEEN 18W AND
30W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N15W TO 30N21W...27N30W 24N41W...AND 23N54W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N51W 28N60W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W
AND 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N48W 10N55W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 19N
BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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