[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 6N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 6N22W TO 4N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NE
10-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
SE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
W GULF ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND S FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
PRODUCING NW FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF.
EXPECT A LAX SURFACE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
23N79W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...
HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 83W-91W.
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N73W TO BEYOND SW
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 69W TO INCLUDE THE MONA
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO ADVECT OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL WEST ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUSIDENCE ARE
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLANTIC AT 30N60W TO 27N70W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO CENTRAL
CUBA AT 23N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 66W-74W TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. A 1004 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO 26N30W TO 20N30W TO 18N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WELL E OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-34N BETWEEN 22W-28W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N29W ENHANCING THE SURFACE SYSTEM. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO 31N27W
WITH CONVECTION. FURTHER MORE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO BE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 15N
W OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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