[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 05N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N97W WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS...MUCH OF WHICH IS FOCUSED
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N94W TO 23N97W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 1042 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SE
CONUS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND
FAIR SKIES. A SHEAR LINE HOWEVER STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...FRESH E-
NE TRADE WINDS PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
LOOKING AHEAD THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FOR TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PASSING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOST CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N.

...HISPANIOLA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE TRADE WIND FLOW REGIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 32N74W TO 22N79W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N59W TO 28N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AND
EXTENDS W-SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N34W THAT SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N36W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N33W S-
SW TO 15N36W TO 09N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N-
30N BETWEEN 17W-30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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