[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
08N13W TO 05N22W. EASTERN PORTION OF ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N22W
TO 06N36W. THE ITCZ STARTS AGAIN NEAR 10N41W AND CONTINUES TO
07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW LARGE SCALE MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH W-NW WINDS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
STRATOCUMULUS. BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 1044 MB HIGH PRES
CENTERED WELL NE OF THE AREA NEAR VERMONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SUN THEN
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MON AND MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHEAR LINE STRETCHING FROM CUBA TO HONDURAS ACTING AS A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE DRIFTING W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT RIDGE N OF THE AREA TO
WEAKEN SUN...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY SUN AND
MON. FAIRLY TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND MOST CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.
EXPECT TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE TRADE
WIND FLOW REGIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE NEAR
28N72W WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA. EXTENSIVE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ABOUT 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED IN E ATLANTIC NEAR
26N38W IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 40W PASSING OVER THE AREA...DISPLACING MOST OF THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE EAST. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N60W IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
A TYPICAL DRY SEASON TRADE WIND REGIME PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT NE AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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