[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 6N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 6N22W TO 4N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
6N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 15W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LOUISIANA. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO W OF 95W...AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND
STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT A
BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MON WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR
LINE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W AND
88W. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 20 KT WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND 10-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LIFTS
NORTHWARD ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX. TYPICAL DRY
SEASON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN AND MON...WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE ISLAND NEAR PUERTO RICO DRIFTING WEST
TOWARD WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS
ALONG 71W. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHEAR LINE...THE REMAINS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM 30N59W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN SW TO WEST-
CENTRAL CUBA. DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALONG 71W IS ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO
STRONG E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY
WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA
CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND
69W DRIFTING W TOWARD HISPANIOLA. A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N30W IS MOVING E. IT IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27W PASSING OVER THE AREA...DISPLACING
MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FAR TO
THE EAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPICAL DRY
SEASON TRADE WIND REGIME PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 65-70W TODAY.
THE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NE AND DEVELOP INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF 30N. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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