[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 09N15W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 06N23W TO 06N29W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N34W TO 01N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 16W-28W AND FROM
05N-14N BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 15-20 KT. COLD DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE BASIN AND INDICATING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF
THE AREA DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITHIN
THIS TIME FRAME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ATLC ADJACENT WATERS SW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
BASIN AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N76W...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA TO NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 09N81W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 07N BETWEEN 80W-
84W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
DEPICT VERY DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BASIN IS
USHERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-
82W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS TO REACH
THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN CUBA AND THEN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION
TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS DRY AND STABLE N-NE FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRI NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ATLC ADJACENT WATERS SW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN
BASIN AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N69W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO NORTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-78W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS A
TROUGH AXIS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1000 MB LOW CENTER
NEAR 31N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS
ALONG 30N15W 24N21W TO 20N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 225
NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 20W-29W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20N32W TO 14N33W...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 31W-44W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E TIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT IS
FORECAST TO STALL BEFORE MOVING NE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 22N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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