[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 9N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 9N16W TO 6N30W TO 7N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 18W-
28W...AND FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 31W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 33N90W. COLD NORTHERLY 10-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S
OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO THE 60'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND
THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT
21N76W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N81W TO W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW
OF FRONT. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W TO
BEYOND SW COSTA RICA AT 8N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF
THE FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-83W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A PATCH OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUSIDENCE ARE
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT
30N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONTS TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. A 1007 MB LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 29N19W TO 23N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
E OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N41W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL OF THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO
BE STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net