[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280606 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 29N E OF
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO 22N78W AT 28/0000 UTC. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 18N
W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 22N78W TO 15N83W AT 28/0000 UTC.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 09N14W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 06N22W TO 04N31W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N33W TO 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 19W-33W
AND FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. COLD DRY AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE BASIN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE BASIN
AND INDICATING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN
CONUS SW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL-EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W SW TO 16N80W TO
NW NICARAGUA NEAR 13N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED
BY A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
10N BETWEEN 75W-83W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 18N W OF COLD
FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY DEPICT VERY DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BASIN IS USHERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS TO REACH THE COASTLINE
OF EASTERN CUBA AND THEN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS DRY AND STABLE N-NE FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRI NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN
CONUS SW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO
NORTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
22N BETWEEN 70W-78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N E OF COLD
FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS A
TROUGH AXIS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1005 MB LOW CENTER
NEAR 31N23W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N19W
24N22W TO 21N29W. THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SUPPORTS VARIOUS TROUGHS
AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN 31W-51W AS WELL AS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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