[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280019 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

CORRECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION...AND FOR THE SECTION ABOUT THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH
CUBA...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...TO 27N83W OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...TO
22N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE AREA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-TO-NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-HONDURAS COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 27N74W BEYOND 22N78W.
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STORM-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 74W...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 67W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. A FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF SOUTHERN COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N17W TO
6N25W 6N36W 3N46W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE BORDER
WITH NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N100W...TO 20N97W...THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 15N88W IN WESTERN
HONDURAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KATP...AND KIPN.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...SOME CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
SARASOTA...AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AGAIN FROM PUNTA GORDA TO FORT
MYERS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO
14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING UNDER THE COMPARATIVELY
HIGHER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 34N60W 20N62W RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST/
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR
PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. NORTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N60W
13N70W 11N80W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
15N80W...AND 10N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED
STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
EASTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 22N77W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO 19N80W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N83W AND
15N85W EASTERN HONDURAS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.90 IN
TRINIDAD...0.74 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.52 IN FREEPORT IN
THE BAHAMAS...0.42 IN ST. THOMAS...0.26 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN
HONDURAS...AND 0.10 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN
PANAMA...8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...MAY
BE ASSOCIATED MORE CORRECTLY WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 15N60W AND ENDS NEAR 11N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO
27N40W 23N41W 20N45W...TO 17N53W...AND THROUGH 15N70W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A STATIONARY FRONT
REACHES 32N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
30W. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N23W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N21W 26N23W 23N27W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 24N69W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 65W AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N35W TO 20N48W TO 10N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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