[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS
ALONG 30N87W 19N89W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST TO CENTRAL MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 24N93W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
20N97W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO 23N80W IN CUBA....TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN
HONDURAS. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STORM-FORCE
WIND CONDITIONS.
 GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT 18 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 30
TO 40 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF 77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 65W. A THIRD AREA
OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
19N TO THE WEST OF 65W.

...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 22N80W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO
74W SW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N E
OF FRONT TO 67W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. N OF
27N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. S OF
26N AND NE OF BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N72W TO 22N78W. N OF 28N E OF
FRONT TO 65W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. N OF
27N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N66W TO 22N78W. N OF 27N W OF
FRONT TO 77W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT 31N63W TO 27N72W TO 23N80W.
WITHIN 150 NM W OF FRONT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT E OF
BAHAMAS.

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...
.CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT 22N80W TO 16N86W. S OF 18N W OF FRONT NW
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT N WINDS 25
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 22N78W TO 16N84W. S OF 18N W OF
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF
FRONT N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT 22N78W TO 16N84W. S OF 20N W
OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT 23N80W TO 16N86W. S OF 20N W
OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.





...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF SOUTHERN COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N17W TO
6N25W 6N36W 3N46W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE BORDER
WITH NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MEXICO 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N100W...TO 20N97W...THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 15N88W IN WESTERN
HONDURAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KATP...AND KIPN.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS FROM VICTORIA NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE
IN SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RAIN IS FOUND ONLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...SOME
CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SARASOTA...AND LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AGAIN FROM PUNTA GORDA TO FORT MYERS. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO
14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING UNDER THE COMPARATIVELY
HIGHER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 34N60W 20N62W RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST/
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR
PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
12 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. NORTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N60W
13N70W 11N80W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
15N80W...AND 10N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED
STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
EASTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 22N77W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO 19N80W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N83W AND
15N85W EASTERN HONDURAS.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.90 IN
TRINIDAD...0.74 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.52 IN FREEPORT IN
THE BAHAMAS...0.42 IN ST. THOMAS...0.26 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN
HONDURAS...AND 0.10 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN
PANAMA...8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W...MAY
BE ASSOCIATED MORE CORRECTLY WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 15N60W AND ENDS NEAR 11N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO
27N40W 23N41W 20N45W...TO 17N53W...AND THROUGH 15N70W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A STATIONARY FRONT
REACHES 32N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N
BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
30W. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N23W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N21W 26N23W 23N27W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 24N69W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 65W AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N35W TO 20N48W TO 10N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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