[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 22N W
OF 94W FOR A FEW MORE MINUTES UNTIL 27/1800 UTC. SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLC N OF 29N W OF 77W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 9N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 9N17W TO 6N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 22W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT
26N80W TO BEYOND W CUBA AT 22N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. A GALE IS IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF FOR A FEW MORE
MINUTES UNTIL 27/1800 UTC. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 25N100W
TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO THE 70'S OVER
S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 22N82W TO
BEYOND CENTRAL HONDURAS AT 15N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CUBA WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO
BEYOND NW COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE
COLD FRONT. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-83W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A PATCH OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUSIDENCE ARE
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO TO BE OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT
30N78W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A
1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 44N50W WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO HISPANIOLA. A 1006 MB LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N24W A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW TO 30N22W TO 25N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE
OF THE LOW FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
21N61W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. TWO OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 29N41W...AND AT 32N22W. THE LAST
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N69W TO E CUBA AT 22N77W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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