[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF AND IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT WED MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE LATEST NHC
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SW N
ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 10N16W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 05N25W TO 03N35W 03N49W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 22W-25W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 21W-30W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N80W IN THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W 23N83W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE EASTERN GULF AS
WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...HOWEVER THE DRY AND COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS BROUGHT
BY THE FRONT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AT THIS TIME. GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BY
WED EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT
VERY DRY AIR OVER THIS REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BASIN WITH EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 17N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO
WESTERN CUBA W OF 80W AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL WEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS DRY AND STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRI MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO THE SE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF
73W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC
AS A COLD FRONT WED AFTERNOON GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
29N W OF 77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED S OF THE
AZORES SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 29N24W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE LOW...N OF 26N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 39N55W.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 19W-
28W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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