[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING FORECAST FROM TUE AFTERNOON TO WED MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 08N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N25W TO 05N41W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-08N
BETWEEN 27W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
01N-08N BETWEEN 26W-37W AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 23N93W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW
TO 27N96W. EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN GULF S OF 24N W OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DENSE CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF ALONG WITH
MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 25N W OF 90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN. BY TUE
NIGHT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SW GEORGIA EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINES OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. IN THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N E OF 80W. MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN HAITI AND SE OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 66W-71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER NORTHERN HAITI BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGHOUT TUE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE
EVENING TO EARLY WED AS A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE ISLAND FROM THE
EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 25/0900 UTC ENTERS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N61W TO 25N73W
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W. DENSE CLOUD COVER IS EAST OF
THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 73W...INCLUDING
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 20N-24N. WEST OF THE TROUGH...A REGION OF MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 69W-75W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A NARROW UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N41W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 30N34W TO 23N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 38W-43W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SE OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 45W-61W. A SECOND COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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