[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING FOR N-NW WIND IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26/1800 UTC WEST OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1013 MB LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLIES EXPECTED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC BEGINNING AT 27/1200
UTC. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO 02N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 21W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 11N89W AND A VIGOROUS MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...
HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS HAS DEVELOPED A 1013 MB
LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N95W. A FORMING WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST TO 25N89W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR
18N92W. FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE LOW TO
THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED IN THE AREAS OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOTED E OF 95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 83W-
91W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 91W-96W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE MOBILE BAY
REGION. THEREAFTER AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SE CONUS
WEDNESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BLAST OF STRONG N-NW WINDS FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THIS IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS
BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. TRADES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS N OF 19N ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF ANEGADA PASSAGE FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN S OF 16N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES IS ALSO
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
PANAMA S OF 11N. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N
IS PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN PANAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH TO
THE NORTH PROVIDES THE BUMP IN WIND SPEED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
OVER THE ISLAND. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED STABILITY AND AN
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC FROM 23N66W TO NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N73W IS
PROVIDING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
20N BETWEEN 63W-75W IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MORE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE EAST OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
REGION AND IS LIKELY TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS POSSIBLY IMPACTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N61W TO 28N64W THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W SW TO 25N70W THEN W-SW TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 64W.  TO THE S-SE...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
NOTED FROM NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N73W NE TO
27N63W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 61W-72W. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRAILS TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N40W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N45W
TO 26N42W WHICH CONTINUES TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN SURFACE
RIDGING THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-28N
BETWEEN 36W-43W PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. FINALLY...WITH VERY WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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