[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING FORECAST FROM TUE AFTERNOON TO WED MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 07N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO 04N45W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 27W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE
NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0300 UTC ENTERS
THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W TO 24N87W. FROM
THERE...IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 23N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO 27N96W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. N-NW OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COASTLINE MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THAT EXTEND
EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NW BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT
AND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINES OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. IN THE SW
BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-83W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH
MON. EXPECT FRESH NE WINDS S OF CUBA AND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL
TONIGHT AND MON AS WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN THEN
LIFTS N LATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NW
CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER NORTHERN HAITI BEING
ENHANCED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT TUE AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE EVENING TO EARLY WED AS A DRY
AIRMASS ENTERS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NW ATLC INTO THE NE CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/0300 UTC ENTERS SW N ATLC
NEAR 30N63W TO 26N71W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. DENSE
CLOUD COVER IS EAST OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70
NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A PRE-FRONTAL  SURFACE TROUGH IS
SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N66W TO 22N70W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER
EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
63W-65W AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 60W-62W. A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
SLOWLY DISSIPATES FROM 30N35W TO 26N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THE TAIL
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 39W-44W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SE OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A SECOND COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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