[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE FAR W ATLC WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 27N
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W TO 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 27W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 30W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 24/2100 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE AND CONTINUES ALONG
25N86W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 23N94W THEN A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS S ALONG 21N92W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO 26N96W.
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT
WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER WHERE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE
E PACIFIC REGION IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF
90W AND E OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NW BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE GULF TUE THROUGH LATE WED THEN DIMINISH THU AND
FRI AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
AREA N OF 18N W OF 81W INCLUDING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF LINE FROM
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA AND
PUERTO RICO ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN
THROUGH MON. EXPECT FRESH NE WINDS S OF CUBA AND ACROSS YUCATAN
CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MON AS WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN
THEN LIFTS N LATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
NW CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SW HAITI.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NW ATLC INTO THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 24/2100 UTC ENTERS W ATLC NEAR
BERMUDA AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 2967W ALONG 26N70W TO
23N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM SE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 24N-28N. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-50W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N43W
AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N35W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N39W TO 23N44W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-44W.
THIS FRONT SPLITS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N30W AND A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES.
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E AND REACH FROM NEAR 32N60W TO
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES SE WHILE S PORTION STALLS ALONG 24N MON NIGHT THEN
MOVES BACK N THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NW. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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