[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY REGION WESTWARD TO 26N92W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W.
NW TO N WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE FORECAST S OF 23N W OF 95W. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N16W TO 05N30W TO 04N43W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 26W-37W...AND FROM 09N-13N
BETWEEN 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE
CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
THE TAMPA BAY REGION. THE FRONT CONTINUES W-SW FROM 28N83W TO
26N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 24N93W THEN SOUTHWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE EASTERN
MEXICO COAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 28N97W S-SE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 24N94W. OVERALL...
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION AREAS ARE LIMITED TO THE WARM SECTOR SE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 88W-92W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL MOVEMENT TO THE S-SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT STRENGTHENS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
LOW TO FORM IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NW GULF EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AND
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF
COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BLAST OF STRONG N-NW
WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS THE
LOW MOVES NE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THIS IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH AN OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH TRADES GENERALLY IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N62W TO 15N71W AND FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
71W-80W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES IS ALSO GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA S OF
11N. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N IS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN PANAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. FINALLY...THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROVIDING THE BUMP IN
WIND SPEED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES OVER THE ISLAND. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
STABILITY AND AN OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND TO THE SW IN THE VICINITY OF
JAMAICA AND AREAS SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N69W SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE...A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
TO 30N69W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA
WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TRAILS TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 59W-68W.
OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W
THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N33W SW TO
22N44W WHICH CONTINUES TO BRIDGE A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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