[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S
OF 23N W 95W AND ASSOCIATED TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
28N82W TO 25N92W TO 18N93W. GALE WARNING EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUN
MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
EAST ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 09N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N26W 04N40W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 33W-41W AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO 22N92W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE S OF 23N W 95W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. EXCEPT FOR
THE SE GULF...DENSE CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N AS WELL AS WITHIN 110 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT FROM 22N-27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N W OF 92W. IN
THE SE GULF...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW GULF MON EVENING ASSOCIATED TO A NEW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 08N89W IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND STABLE WHICH
IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF
16N W OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN SOUTHERN HAITI
AND JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N. E-NE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT IS
BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA...PANAMA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED
NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
STRONG N-NW WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N76W TO 28N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 29N69W TO 23N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF
THE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 145 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-25N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N52W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N36W SW TO 22N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 33W-44W. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N25W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 61W-68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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