[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N88W TO
28N94W TO 23N98W. NW TO N WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING S
OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
9N13W TO 7N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 7N16W TO 3N30W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-
30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 35W-
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N94W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. A GALE IS S OF 26N W OF FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 90W.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA
...THE SE GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S OF 26N E OF 84W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT
7N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 67W-
71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER HONDURAS AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N61W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N44W TO
21N57W TO 22N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N37W TO
22N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-
60W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 22N14W ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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