[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 22N-24N W OF 96W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 4N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT AT 23/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
30N86W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N88W 26N93W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR
18N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF
EXTENDING FROM 26N95W TO 19N94W GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 28B93W TO 23N94W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-
96W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N92W TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
PENSACOLA. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
22N-24N BETWEEN 83W-88W. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND
REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF LATE MON AND MOVE
THROUGH THE N/CENTRAL GULF TUE AND INTO THE SE CONUS WED. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWLY DEVELOPED
LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W
EXTENDS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 83W. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA W OF 80W. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA AND SW HAITI. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF BASIN
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BY WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
HAITI. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUE WITH A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 37W-65W DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS
TO 22N45W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N25W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 1N44W TO 13N47W PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 8N30W TO
12N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 15N56W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND
EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN NIGHT. THE N
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WHILE THE S
PORTION WILL STALL ALONG 24N/25N BY MON NIGHT THEN MOVE BACK TO
THE N AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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