[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE FORCE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N91W TO
25N97W. NW TO N WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF
THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
09N13W TO 04N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N22W TO 03N35W TO 05N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N E OF 14W AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 18W-
21W. JUST WEST OF THE ITCZ AXIS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 10N48W TO 05N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CONCENTRATED NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N-
11N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH BASE ALONG THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
EXTENDS A WEAK AXIS SW TO GENERATE A WEAKNESS ON A MIDDLE-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. THIS
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A
COLD FRONT FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W SW TO 26N93W TO
SOUTHERN-EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WESTERN
GULF W OF A LINE FROM 28N90W TO 20N96W. BESIDES HEAVY
RAINFALL...THERE IS A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N E OF 95W AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 32N67W. EASTERLY FLOW
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH STRONG N-NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N88W IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL
REGION SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...THIS FLOW REMAINS
DRY AND STABLE WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE THIS MORNING. IN THE FAR NW BASIN...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N86W...ALONG
THE BELIZE COASTLINE TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 20N W OF 83W BEING
SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. FARTHER EAST...JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 67W-71W. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO A REGION
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE ISLAND AND A SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WELL
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 48N47W WHICH EXTENDS A TROUGH
AXIS SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 30N43W SW TO 23N54W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 23N64W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM S-SE OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 42W-63W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-74W. THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 30N38W SW TO 22N46W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 20N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE N OF
24N BETWEEN 36W-42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N67W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N24W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 19N56W TO 06N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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