[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA AT 19/0900 UTC IS NEAR
31.2N 54.6W...ABOUT 970 KM/524 NM...TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 31N TO 34N
BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM A 31N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N56W 14N57W...
BEYOND 10N60W INTO VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS STREAMING FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA BEYOND 14N56W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W...WITHIN 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N50W 24N47W BEYOND 32N46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 8N13W TO
5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO 4N28W 8N37W AND 8N42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 18W AND 23W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...AND
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N82W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 28N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR
27N98W...TO NORTHERN MEXICO 29N102W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN
75W AND 84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF
22N98W 23N90W 26N82W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KEHC.....KEIR...KSPR...AND K9FW. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS KEHC...KGBK...KIPN...
KMDJ...KDLP...AND KAXO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM GALVESTON SOUTHWARD TO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
COASTAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED AND/OR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS IN VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA...AND
IN MARATHON KEY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA GORDA
AND NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 28N98W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE SWELLS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT IS PART OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 80W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH TIME.
THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN
NEARLY A COL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH REMAINS INTACT...FROM 19N59W BEYOND
23N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB STARTS
WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OR
SO. HISPANIOLA ALSO ENDS UP NEARLY IN A COL FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENDS UP
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...AND FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND SUBTROPICAL STORM
MELISSA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA FROM 5N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N
TO THE EAST OF 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO A 21N23W DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N34W 17N37W...TO
10N46W. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N
TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 27N81W.
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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