[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 19 00:04:26 CST 2013

AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA AT 19/0300 UTC IS NEAR
30.3N 54.7W...ABOUT 985 KM/532 NM...TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ALONG 32N55W...TO A 31N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
19N57W 14N57W...BEYOND 10N60W INTO VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS STREAMING FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA BEYOND 13N55W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO
7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N16W TO 5N20W 5N30W AND 7N38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N
TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...
BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 81W AND 96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 23N96W
27N92W 27N87W 26N83W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KGBK...KEIR. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS KMDJ AND KAXO. A VISIBILITIY OF 3 MILES
OR LESS WITH FOG AND/OR HAZE ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION
KHQI.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST NORTHWARD...NOT INCLUDING THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR
AREA...CONTINUING INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND/OR
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
IN LOUISIANA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS
IN VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE VISIBILITY IN
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA IS LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. THE SKY HAS STARTED
TO CLEAR IN MARATHON KEY...AFTER LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WERE BEING
REPORTED THERE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 29N83W TO 28N98W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE SWELLS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT IS PART OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH TIME.
THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN
NEARLY A COL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH REMAINS INTACT...FROM 19N59W BEYOND
23N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB STARTS
WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OR
SO. HISPANIOLA ALSO ENDS UP NEARLY IN A COL FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENDS UP
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND SUBTROPICAL STORM
MELISSA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO
THE WEST OF 76W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA...TO THE NORTH OF 8N BETWEEN 84W
AND 86W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
MOROCCO TO 21N18W AND 12N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N34W 17N37W...TO
10N46W. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N
TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 27N80W.
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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