[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 54.6W AT
19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 520 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 36N53W TO 32N57W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N32W TO 9N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 7W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 9N-13N E OF 11W TO INLAND OVER
W AFRICA...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 18W-30W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
30W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
DRAPES A COLD FRONT AT 19/1500 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA CONTINUING ALONG
26N88W TO ACROSS S TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 22N TO THE
GULF COAST W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF
90W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF WATERS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME STATIONARY AS IT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA TO INLAND NE
MEXICO WED AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM SW HAITI NEAR
18N72W ALONG 15N76W TO 14N82W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY S HAITI AND SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE EXPERIENCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS. NE
TO E SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
RAINS TO THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF
30N IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT AT 19/1500 UTC INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N69W AND CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N BETWEEN 48W-72W. SUBTROPICAL STORM
MELISSA IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E
EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 7N43W TO BEYOND 32N37W PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-19W BETWEEN 42W-52W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 19N49W TO BEYOND 32N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES. COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N70W TO MIAMI FLORIDA THIS EVENING
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT REACHES
FROM NEAR 32N55W TO 27N75W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WED THEN SLOWLY
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN SLIDE E THU AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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