[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N
BETWEEN 45W-59W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N45W TO 22N54W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 5N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING SE TO S WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SMALL EMBEDDED 1013 MB LOW IS HOWEVER OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N87W. 20-30 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE CENTER. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF 86W. A SMALL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 22N90W TO 18N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W
FROM THE LOW TO NW COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...THE
TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N60W TO
N OF PUERTO RICO AT 20N66W TO N HAITI AT 20N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING
THUNDERSTORM BUILDUPS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND FOR SHOWERS
TO MOVE S FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
MOVING S. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND THAT SHOULD
PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N63W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N45W TO
27N50W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 22N54W TO 19N60W. A GALE IS W OF THE
FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 43N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N30W. IN THE TROPICS
... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N59W TO
10N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N53W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE N TO 27N52W...AND DEEPEN WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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