[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 27N
BETWEEN 44W-55W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N44W TO 22N54W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 07N44W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220
NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 28W...FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 28W-34W AND
FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 45N49W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE EASTERN GULF TO GENERATE MOSTLY RETURN FLOW
IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE W OF 70W SW TO THE NE GULF THERE IS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N86W. IN
THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO 18N93W.
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE LOW CENTER
AND WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
COASTLINE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW BASIN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
COASTLINES OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS SW TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO THE LOW TO 09N59W. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
RAINSHOWERS FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AS WELL AS BARBADOS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BUT THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-
60W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A
SHEAR LINE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HISPANIOLA COASTAL
WATERS. THIS IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS OVER HAITI AND WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 45N49W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE SW NORTH ATLC. FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE W OF 70W SW TO THE NE GULF THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 34N74W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-60W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N45W TO 21N53W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES SW
TO 20N58W AND THEN WESTWARD TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 42W-
55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W-68W. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-20N E OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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