[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 28N
BETWEEN 50W-55W ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N46W TO A 1006 MB LOW AT 25N53W
TO 20N54W TO 17N57W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W 6N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE TO S WINDS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 27N E OF 85W. FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING
SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER SE TEXAS AND THE N GULF STATES.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W
FROM THE LOW TO NW COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD SHEAR
LINE ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 17N60W TO PUERTO RICO TO
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
15N W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM BUILDUPS. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH...AND FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE S FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING S. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND
THAT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUILDING. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N46W TO
A 1006 MB LOW AT 25N53W TO 20N54W TO 17N57W. A GALE IS W OF THE
FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 43N23W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N30W. IN THE TROPICS
... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N59W TO
9N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N53W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE N TO 29N53W...AND DEEPEN WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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