[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W TO 6N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 4N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 22N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
84W-87W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E
TEXAS. THE N GULF N OF 25N HAS 15-25 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 27N ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE
GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E
CUBA AT 21N77W TO W CUBA AT 22N 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 82W-88W. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 11N73W TO N COSTA RICA
AT 11N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-90W. FURTHER E...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N65W TO 10N65W
PRODUCING ONLY A WINDSHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W
PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE W
CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO RICO
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 34N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
32N48W TO 25N60W TO 22N70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 44W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 48N16W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N40W.
IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 15N53W TO 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 52W-55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 35W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 110 KT JETSTREAM TO DIP SOUTH TO
20N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 58W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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