[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 4N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 20W-
37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N84W TO N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 23N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 82W-90W. A 1029 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N77W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS. THE N GULF N OF 25N
HAS 15-25 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WARM FRONT TO
FORM OVER THE SE GULF WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO W CUBA AT 23N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 82W-88W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA AT 11N73W TO N COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-90W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N66W TO 10N66W PRODUCING ONLY A
WINDSHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ISLAND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HOWEVER TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO RICO
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 35N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
32N46W TO 28N50W TO 22N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E
CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 42W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 47N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N40W. IN THE
TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
14N53W TO 9N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 52W-55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 35W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A 110 KT JETSTREAM TO DIP SOUTH TO 20N
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 58W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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