[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N21W 5N31W TO 6N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-32W AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 14/2100 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS N CUBA TO
HAVANA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N85W 21N91W TO S
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE N OF THE FRONT W OF 84W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER TENNESSEE WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BECOME A SHEAR LINE
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW GULF MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N W OF 81W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS
PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ALONG 62W FROM 14N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. AS OF THIS MORNING TRINIDAD HAD
REPORTED RECEIVING HALF OF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E FRI THROUGH SUN WHILE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY HISPANIOLA IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIMIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW TO N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/1800 UTC ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N61W TO 23N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO OVER THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
MORON THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM
W OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER TENNESSEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING ALONG 52W FROM 9N-15N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-
14N BETWEEN 47W-55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC
WHILE THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A SHEAR LINE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E FRI THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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