[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141812 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013

CORRECTION FOR THE WORDING OF THE FORECAST INFORMATION
FOR HISPANIOLA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 23.5N80W 21.5N90W
18.5N93W...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12 TO 16 FT. A SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
90W. A FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 27N TO 29N TO THE EAST OF
91W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WESTERN COASTAL GUINEA NEAR THE
BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N17W 6N20W 6N36W...AND
6N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N12W
24N22W. A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO A 28N31W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N32W...TO 9N42W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 280 NM TO 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 11N43W 18N30W...AND
WITHIN 500 TO 700 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 18N30W BEYOND 24N16W.
OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
30N71W AND DISSIPATING IN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N60W
AND 23N70W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 23N70W
22N76W 23N82W 22N90W TO 19N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 92W AND 96W BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COASTAL
MEXICO...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32N49W 28N53W
26N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE 26N58W 20N73W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN MERIDA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 0.12 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION...CURVING
THROUGH EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A 1030
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W IN COASTAL MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
...AND THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 26N81W 23N90W 18N93W FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
94W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

...HISPANIOLA...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA. FAIR SKIES APPEAR ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE MOMENT.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL
COVER THE AREA. THE WIND FLOW AT 700 MB WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WIND FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN 80W RIDGE FOR 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
ALONG 60W/61W FROM 9N IN COASTAL VENEZUELA TO 14N. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.46 IN
TRINIDAD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF 76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...AS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 76W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...
BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N78W 11N80W 13N82W 15N83W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE
BORDERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS THE SEA HEIGHT 9 TO 11 FEET
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W.
A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. A
FOURTH AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET
TO THE WEST OF 85W...HIGHEST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM 9N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N46W AND TO 20N64W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N57W TO 23N70W THEN
STATIONARY FRONT TO 22.5N80W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 16 FEET...HIGHEST NORTH...TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 64W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THAT AREA CONSISTS OF
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 8
FEET ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net