[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH
NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 21N-23N W OF 94W ON TUE NIGHT.
SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N16W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 7N22W TO 6N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
26N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 86W-95W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH 10-15 KT NE
SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W PRODUCING SW TO W
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE S GULF S OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BESIDES THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
E HONDURAS AT 16N85W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. A MONSOON TROUGH
ALSO EXTENDS FROM W COLOMBIA AT 6N77W TO NW COSTA RICA AT 10N86W
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA N OF 8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
14N AND E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. ALSO
EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ISLAND AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE S OF
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 32N70W TO 30N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 32N59W TO 26N62W. A
1016 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 29N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 54W-66W. THE TAIL
END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N40W TO 31N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N30W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 12N35W TO 4N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180
NM OF THE THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-55W
ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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