[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13/0000 UTC
AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS AND SWIFTLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF NE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 06N25W TO 07N44W TO 05N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM 03N-10N ALONG 44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 11W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W THAT IS PROVIDING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 107W CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER A MAJORITY OF
THE GULF BASIN. THIS MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W TO 25N89W IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY S OF 28N BETWEEN
82W-97W. OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...NOTE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N81W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF A LINE FROM 16N86W TO
09N77W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
10N83W TO 15N85W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED W OF 79W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DRY AND STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON
BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N69W AND IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE
CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 15N BETWEEN 58W-65W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WELL TO THE
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED FROM 27N61W TO 31N60W AND THE
OTHER ANALYZED FROM 26N72W TO 30N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 52W-72W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN
THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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