[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111806 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND
SWIFTLY PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH NORTHERLY
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 21N-24N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
09N13W TO 08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N18W TO 06N27W TO 06N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-28W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N79W IS PROVIDING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO JALAPA MEXICO SUPPORTS TWO
SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SE GULF IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF THE AXIS S OF 25N...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SECOND TROUGH IS ON THE SW GULF FROM
24N95W TO 18N94W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 91W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES N OF 26N AS WELL AS WEST OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 10-20 KT. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND
INTRODUCE NORTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N80W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SE GULF
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 84W. A
MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W SW TO PANAMA NEAR 09N80W. UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE S-SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
LASTLY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA
IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO DRY AND OVERALL
STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXCEPT
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N78W TO 29N81W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 30N67W
TO 26N70W...THE SECOND FROM 30N60W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N 27N BETWEEN 52W-67W. FARTHER EAST...THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N42W SW TO 29N47W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 39N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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