[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111154 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013

CORRECTION FOR ADDITION OF SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13/0600 UTC
AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO THE NW GULF WATERS AND SWIFTLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN WITH GALE FORCE
NORTHEASTERLIES FROM 21N-24N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N19W TO 07N25W TO 07N33W TO 07N40W TO 03N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 14W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W THAT IS PROVIDING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NORTHWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.
THIS MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY
S OF 27N BETWEEN 81W-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N92W TO 23N97W AND IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N96W TO 21N96W TO 18N93W.
OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL BARREL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 20N80W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AND SW PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED WEST OF A LINE FROM 20N85W TO 10N77W THAT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED FROM 16NN88W TO 22N88W AND
THE OTHER FROM 10N81W TO 16N84W. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION S OF
16N IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION N OF 16N IS W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ADVECT ON BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT. LASTLY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA IMPACTING THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 55W-
70W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED WELL TO THE
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N40W SW TO 29N44W WHERE IT BECOMES A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N51W TO 27N57W. SINCE MOST OF
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED
AND REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
FARTHER WEST WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N61W TO
25N78W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ANALYZED
FROM 27N64W TO 31N61W AND FROM 24N78W TO 29N69W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 41N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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