[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS ARE GALE FORCE BEHIND FRONT S OF 22N. SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N29W 3N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 145
NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA E OF 9W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 5N15W TO 3N28W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 9N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND TAMPA BAY ALONG 25N88W
22N93W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 94W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT E OF 93W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE GULF WATERS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 85W-90W.
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SE OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT ANCHORED OVER N TEXAS AND ARKANSAS. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING STALLING FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/LOWER KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 21N81W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC
AND SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 19N86W INLAND
OVER HONDURAS TO 15N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
17N77W TO 12N78W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 74W-79W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 15N62W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 12N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 10N
W OF 73W. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER IN
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN TO E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY THEN INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W
ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF GONAVE WHILE HISPANIOLA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND
INCREASING ON MON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W CROSSING FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE COLD
FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
BERMUDA COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 23N55W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N46W ALONG 28N48W TO 24N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM 17N58W ALONG 26N46W TO BEYOND 32N43W. THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH W
OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA TODAY AND FROM 32N55W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS LATE SAT THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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