[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
FRI EVENING. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS ARE GALE FORCE BEHIND FRONT S OF 24N. SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 13N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 9N23W 6N30W TO 8N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-35W...FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 35W-39W...AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST LIBERIA
BETWEEN 8W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND CEDAR KEY ALONG 26N88W
23N94W TO MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF W OF A LINE FROM NE
MEXICO NEAR 25N97W ALONG 22N95W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. DENSE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE FRONT E OF 89W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE SE GULF N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN BEYOND 21N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BETWEEN 85W-87W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SE OVER THE NW GULF
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED OVER N TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SE AND EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI BEFORE
STALLING FROM UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N80W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC
AND SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 17N84W.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N80W TO
10N82W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 76W-82W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NARROWS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 16N61W TO 14N67W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N75W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 72W-77W. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
LINGER THROUGH FRI. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL RETURN TO E
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DAYTIME HEATING COULD GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND INCREASING ON MON
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N80W CROSSING FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
24N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W
ATLC TO BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 20N56W INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N47W TO
29N51W WITH A SHEAR LINE CONTINUING TO 28N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SAME 1015 MB LOW ALONG 27N50W TO 21N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N41W TO 17N59W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA BY
LATE FRI AND FROM 32N52W TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY LATE SAT THEN
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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