[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Nov 8 11:58:56 CST 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 081758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS GALE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 24N90W TO 22N94W TO 18N94W. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N16W TO 04N26W TO 03N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 04W-14W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 16W-
22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 36W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW OVER THE
EASTERN U.S SEABOARD TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 31N81W. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W TO 26N86W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N93W TO 18N94W.
WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINING N OF 29N...THE
FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER OVERCAST
SKIES AND A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 93W. WEST OF
93W...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.
THE MOST IMPORTANT IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS THE
SPECIAL FEATURE HIGHLIGHTING A GALE WARNING ONGOING ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS VALID THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NORTH OF THE FRONT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN AS NORTHEAST
WINDS DOMINATE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT AND ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W THAT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ONGOING CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 13N83W TO 16N83W TO 18N91W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
82W-85W AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 85W-91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR ALOFT ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE
OVERALL STABILITY IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 80W...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-76W AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ABC ISLANDS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. TRADES ARE
FORECAST FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE FRONT PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
DUE TO DRY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CONUS AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING S-SW TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 31N81W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N72W EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND
THE OTHER EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE
COLD FRONT NEAR 32N72W. WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 71W-79W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGHS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NE TO
BEYOND 32N62W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N52W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A
BASE NEAR 14N56W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N49W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S-
SW TO 26N56W. MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CAUSE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 33N42W TO 22N53W.
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 10N55W TO 17N51W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH THE MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN
44W-58W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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