[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TEXAS COASTLINE LATER
TONIGHT. WITHIN 24 HOURS...30 TO 35 KT NW TO N WINDS ARE
FORECAST FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 96W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11
FT. WITHIN 48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG
25N81W TO 21N94W TO 18N94W WITH 30 TO 35 KT NW TO N WINDS S OF
21N W OF FRONT. WITHIN THIS PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 10 TO 13 FT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 07N30W 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N
BETWEEN 29W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGHING
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF S OF 28N WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N89W TO 21N87W AT 2100 UTC. THIS TROUGH IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
87W-93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS IN THE EASTERN GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE  ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF N OF 27N E OF 84W. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TEXAS COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED N OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N84W AND
EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N85W TO 16N86W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 18N. MIDDLE-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM OF
SOUTHERN CUBA COASTLINE AS WELL AS SW OF JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY A BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN
BASIN SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-74W.

EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST S OF CENTRAL CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS
HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST PARTS OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 19N. EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR
WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 24N71W TO 20N71W WITH
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 20N56W TO 13N57W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE LATER TROUGH AND ALSO A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N51W TO 28N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ARE N OF 19N BETWEEN 43W-57W. FURTHER EAST...A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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