[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N30W 6N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 25W-43W...AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N88W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AT 21N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO INCLUDE W CUBA FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N88W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 24N89W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DISSIPATE AND
BE REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA.
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM S
MISSISSIPPI TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BESIDES THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HONDURAS FROM 20N85W TO 16N86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-84W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO W COSTA RICA
TO EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N71W. A VERY LAX SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING ONLY 5-10
KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE SE OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT TRADEWINDS. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N70W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 21N71W BASICALLY PRODUCING A WINDSHIFT. THE TAIL END
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W TO 30N55W TO
25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N28W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N53W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 44W-54W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N46W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-23N BETWEN 36W-
40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 30N50W TO 25N55W WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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